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Fall recall appears to be certain


July 22, 2003

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"if appropriate. " Under the law, Bustamante decides whether it's appropriate.

Some legal experts said these two words were added to the law because some officials, such as judges, would be replaced through appointment, not an election. It would not be "appropriate" for Bustamante to allow for the elected replacement of judicial candidates.

The matter is under review by Shelley's office, and could be the source of a last-minute lawsuit to slow or sabotage the recall. If there are no replacement candidates on the ballot, and Davis is recalled, then Bustamante would replace him.

"I have already stated that I don't think there is that kind of option," Bustamante said. "Clearly, the duties of the lieutenant governor and succession are in the Constitution and it would take constitutional scholars to give that kind of advice and counsel."

Rick Hasen, an election law expert and professor at Loyola Law School, said an increasing number of strategists are using election law as part of a political strategy.

"The problem here is we have a disastrous set of recall statutes that have never been tested. They are just a mess," said Hasen, who blamed voters who approved election-related ballot measures and the Legislature. "The courts are going to have to sort these things out."

All of these factors are playing into candidates' decisions on whether to challenge Davis on a recall ballot.

Schwarzenegger's wife, journalist Maria Shriver, is reportedly against his running for governor. There is a fear that he could be a target for tabloid sleaze and even assassination because he is married to a member of the Kennedy clan and is a world-famous actor.

"Arnold is coming home to see what the situation is, and he's very interested in running for governor," said George Gorton, his political consultant, who did not comment on Shriver. "But he has to determine when, and if, this is going to happen."

With questions about possible legal maneuvers -- and when Bustamante might schedule an election -- "there's substantial roadblocks in the way," said Gorton. "And when he decides they're gone, his main consideration is his family."

THE SCHWARZENEGGER FACTOR Two other prominent Republicans, both of whom attend the same church with Schwarzenegger, have decisions to make as well. Former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan and financier Bill Simon each lost elections last year after being effectively sabotaged by Davis. They may face him again on the same ballot.

Riordan -- who topped a Field Poll last week on possible challengers -- said Schwarzenegger's decision will be paramount to his own political future.

"If Arnold is going to run, I'll not even consider running. If he doesn't, I will then have to try to make a decision," Riordan said. "I think decisions have to be made this week. Time is running out. You've got to be ready right away."

Simon is "maintaining a schedule of political events," including delivering a speech to a Republican group in Sonoma on Thursday, said Brent Lauder, his spokesman. But with Shelley's announcement this week, "things are moving quickly . . . suddenly he could be filing. We're aware of all the deadlines."

Green Party candidate Peter Camejo said Monday he might consider dropping out of the race if Davis resigns and Bustamante replaces him before the election is certified by Shelley. He told another newspaper he'd also bow out if political pundit Arianna Huffington enters the race.

All of this maneuvering has one former Davis strategist wondering why anyone would want to become governor. Garry South said Davis won't resign and questioned the sanity of those who would jump in.

"Let's

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